Will Medicare Take My 2027 Social Security Raise?

The Senior Citizens League is forecasting a 3.8% Social Security cost-of-living raise for 2027, and the number is already making the rounds. Part of whatever you get goes to your Medicare Part B premium, which comes out before you ever see the check. How much, nobody knows yet. Neither figure is final.

Social Security announces the COLA in October, after the September inflation numbers come out. CMS sets the next year's Part B premium separately, usually in October or November.

01How much is 3.8% in dollars?

The average retired worker drew $2,084 a month in June 2026, according to Social Security figures compiled by the Senior Citizens League. A 3.8% raise on that is about $79 a month.

Yours will be different. The COLA is a percentage, so it scales to your benefit. Someone drawing $1,200 gets a smaller dollar raise than someone drawing $3,000.

And 3.8% is a forecast, not a decision. The 2026 COLA landed at 2.8%.

02Why doesn't the whole raise show up?

Most people have the Part B premium deducted from their Social Security payment. Premium up, deduction up, and what reaches your account is what's left.

For 2026, CMS set the standard Part B premium at $202.90 a month, up $17.90 from $185.00 in 2025. Whatever your raise came to, $17.90 a month of it went straight back out.

CMS has not announced the 2027 premium. Anyone who tells you what it will be is guessing.

03Can the premium eat the whole raise?

For most people, no. A federal rule called hold harmless caps it.

According to the Medicare Rights Center, hold harmless means your Part B premium increase can't be bigger than your Social Security raise. Your check can't drop below what it was the year before. It applies if you were drawing Social Security the previous November and December, your premium comes out of that check, and you don't pay IRMAA.

It doesn't cover everybody. You're outside it if you're new to Medicare that year, if you pay IRMAA because of your income, or if a Medicare Savings Program pays your premium for you.

If you carry a Part B late enrollment penalty, hold harmless doesn't waive it. The penalty can still rise, because it's figured off the new standard premium.

04What if my premium isn't deducted from Social Security?

If you took Medicare at 65 but haven't started Social Security yet, you get a bill from Medicare instead, and there's no COLA to cushion the increase.

Hold harmless doesn't reach you either, because it works by protecting the Social Security payment. There isn't one yet.

Worth knowing before you plan around a raise you won't be getting. If you're weighing whether to delay Medicare while you're still working, that's a separate question with its own deadlines.

05Could a bigger check cost me Extra Help?

Extra Help and the Medicare Savings Programs both carry income and asset limits, and a COLA raises your income.

The income limits move too. They're tied to the federal poverty level, which gets adjusted every year, so a raise doesn't automatically put you over.

Don't assume either way. If you're sitting close to a limit, check again once the new figures publish. Here are the current Extra Help income and asset limits.

Not sure how this applies to your own situation? I'll walk through it with you. No cost for the help, and no obligation to enroll.

Logan Cope · Licensed Insurance Agent

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06What to do when the numbers land

1. Watch for the COLA in October and the Part B premium in November.
2. Read the Social Security notice that arrives in December. It lists your new benefit and your new Part B deduction.
3. Do the subtraction. New benefit minus new deduction is what hits your account.
4. If you're near an Extra Help or Medicare Savings Program limit, run it again with the new figures.

The COLA and the Part B premium are set nationally, so the numbers are the same in Rogersville, TN as anywhere else. What differs is which exceptions apply to you.

The figures above come from the CMS fact sheet on 2026 Medicare Parts A and B premiums, Social Security benefit data compiled by the Senior Citizens League, and the Medicare Rights Center.